NBA FINALS PREVIEW, PART 3
Insanity, Thy Name is Basketball
This year’s playoffs give a whole new meaning to the term recency bias.
In Part 1, we talked about all the crazy things that happen in basketball that you don’t see in the box score. Part 2 analyzed the unlikely rise of the Dallas Mavericks.
Regular season basketball is too random to be a true indicator of playoff greatness.
First, Denver was the odds-on favorite. Then Minnesota destroyed their myth of invincibility. Then Dallas snuffed out the TWolves 15 minutes of fame. Now, it is the mighty 64-win Boston Celtics with their historically great advanced stats and point differentials.
When are people going to learn to overcome their recency bias and look for the factors that determine a champion?
Weak schedules, injuries, shooting variance, and a lack of time to prepare for an opponent can make a team look historically good during the regular season.
Anyone who analyzes basketball knows this, but the media is all about getting eyeballs and clicks to sell ads, so they invent narratives to suit their purposes.
The playoffs are different because of the way referees call games. Usually, foul-grifting players are not rewarded with bogus calls in the playoffs.
But this season, after the All-Star break, the NBA told their officials to allow more physical play because the offensive stats went through the roof.
It was almost like giving teams 26 games to practice playing playoff basketball.
Was Dallas’ run to the Finals based on basketball fundamentals or just another fluke?
I think people discounted the greatness of Luka Doncic and great defense.
After inserting Daniel Gafford into the starting lineup, Dallas turned their season around, going on a late 16–2 run to reach 50 wins. They secured the number five seed, with the chance to play the oft-injured Los Angeles Clippers.
The Clippers and their fans already have history with Doncic — if you consider “history” as the notes written by your trauma counselor.
In 2021, as a 21-year-old, third-year player, Doncic took turns destroying the NBA’s best wing defenders at the time, Kawhi Leonard and Paul George, en route to winning Games 1 and 2 on the road in Los Angeles.
Call it The Nightmare on Figueroa, with Doncic as Freddy Krueger. The Mavs raced out to 15-point first quarter lead in Game 3, but Doncic hurt his knee in that game. The Clippers finally won that series in seven games, despite Luka getting 38. The next year, Dallas won in six games and again this year.
But let’s be honest here. Unless you are a Mavericks fan, or a citizen of Slovenia, you wouldn’t know about the team’s transformation.
You’re right to ask, “Why should we trust a small sample size from the regular season?”
Just look at the flame outs known as your 2022 Boston Celtics.
Not only did I not pay attention to Dallas’ mid-season transformation, I didn’t consider them a title contender before the playoffs started.
During the regular season, Denver (2–1), Minnesota (3–1), and Oklahoma City (3–1) dominated the Mavs in their head-to-head games.
And that’s why regular season data can be so deceptive. Dallas played only one of those games with their new starting lineup, a 2-point win at Denver on Kyrie Irving’s insane left-handed buzzer beater.
In the last game of the season, Dallas sat their entire starting lineup against Oklahoma City and lost by 49 points. By losing, they allowed the Thunder to grab the #1 seed in the West, setting up a potential second round playoff series with them.
Do you think this was an accident?
Dallas wanted the Thunder, and wanted to avoid Denver until the Western Conference Finals.
They got a dream draw, as Minnesota upset Denver, the one team that would have beat Dallas in the West. (Besides the Lakers, haha)
The Western Conference was an unpredictable blood bath and Dallas made it through the gauntlet.
Dallas shocked the NBA because:
- Luka Doncic still played at an MVP-level of domination despite being injured.
- Kyrie Irving, decided to play defense and rebound after ignoring these facets of the game for 13 seasons.
- Derek Lively II not only overcame the traditional rookie wall at mid-season, he exploded as a two-way player in the playoffs as a lob threat and as a safety-valve passer in 4-on-3 situations when opponents trapped Doncic.
- Washington and Jones Jr. turned into solid threats on corner three-pointers, spreading defenses so Doncic or Irving could attack the paint at any time.
- Doncic and Irving were amazing in crunch time, as they hit big shots to win 6 out of 8 close games in their first three rounds.
In the Finals, they will face the Boston Celtics, who dominated the regular season, then cruised through a hobbled Eastern Conference.
If we go by 5-man lineup data in the playoffs, the series seems very close (based on 100 minimum minutes played).
Dallas’ best lineup against elite competition turned out to be the four starters with Derek Lively II, because of his passing ability when teams tried to take the ball out of Doncic’s hands. The Celtics will probably do the same thing if Doncic has a hot hand early.
Doncic-Irving-Jones Jr.-Washington-LIvely II: 111.9 Offensive rating (#9), 98.5 Defensive Rating (#2)
If you substitute Gafford for Lively, Dallas was keeping their heads just above water: 0.4 net rating
Boston Preview
So-called “experts” love to talk about the team with the deepest and most talented roster in the NBA. And almost every year, one team dominates the crappy Eastern conference, so their advanced stats always look incredible.
I wrote about these fraudulent teams every year, starting with the 2019 Celtics, the 2020 Bucks, and the 2022 Celtics.
This year, Boston has led the league in just about every statistical category.
But if you believe a 40-point win over a terrible Eastern team or the floundering Warriors without Stephen Curry, I’ve got some prime real estate in the Everglades to sell you.
On paper, Boston’s six-player core might be the greatest aggregation of talent in history. Tatum Brown, and Horford have been on an All-NBA team. Brown, Holiday, Horford, and White have all received votes for DPOY, and/or made an All-Defensive NBA team. And everyone except White has been an All-Star.
These guys can literally roll out of bed and beat most NBA teams. And based on their history in crunch time situations, you have to wonder if they didn’t start their pre-game nap ritual after the opening tip-off.
But let’s go a little deeper and examine Boston’s 5-man lineup ratings in the playoffs.
Their best lineup is Tatum-Brown-Holiday-White plus a center and they are virtually identical.
With Horford: 122.6 Offensive rating (#4), 104.6 Defensive Rating (#6), Net Rating 18.0 (#1)
With Porzingis: 122.4 Offensive rating (#5), 104.4 Defensive Rating (#5), Net Rating 18.0 (#2)
When you look at these ratings, it discounts the media narrative that Porzingis turns Boston into a super team.
Delusional Celtics fan can talk about the unstoppable Porizingis-White pick and pop, or Porzingis’ incredible postup play. But the reality is Porzingis is a slow-moving center who will be pulled out away from the basket on defense by Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving on pick and roll plays every minute he is on the court. So while Porzingis will be an offensive force, he is not going to slow down the Mavericks’ offense.
The Finals will all be about Boston’s secret MVP
If the MVP is supposed to be a regular-season award, why not give it to the best player on the team with the best record? Boston’s Jaylen Brown. (too soon, Tatum fans? The other guy did win the Eastern Conference Finals MVP.)
Seriously, the critical piece that Porzingis plays, if healthy, is he allows the Celtics to play at their peak for more minutes in each game so:
- Boston’s terrible reserve centers don’t get exposed.
- The Celtics get to rest their real MVP player.
Al Horford is now 38 years old and finally showing some signs of age. At the spry age of 36, he was the Celtics’ true MVP on their run to the Finals. With Boston down two games to one and playing in Milwaukee, he saved their season with a then playoff career-best performance, hit 5 of 7 from beyond the arc and a total of 30 points. Two weeks later, he saved them again in Game 1 of the Finals, with making 6 of 8 from deep and scoring 26 points. In that 2022 playoff run, he hit a ridiculous 48% of his 3s.
In 2023, the Celtics played him more minutes than he had since 2018, and they needed every minute as Horford shot a career best .446 3P%, on 5.2 attempts per game.. In the playoffs, all that wear and tear took its tool, as he shot only 29.8% from deep and the Celtics collapsed against Miami.
By adding Porzingis this year, Boston was able to cut back Horford’s minutes to a career-low 26.8 minutes per game during the regular season and he almost joined the 50/40.90 club (.511 FG%, .414 3P%, .867 FT%).
With Porzingis injured during the playoffs, Horford’s workload increased and his shooting went down. In 9 of his 14 playoff games, he shot 33.3% or worse. He had a monster 7 for 12 performance that saved Boston after trailing Indiana (without Halliburton) by 18 midway through the third quarter. But if he only plays great in one out of every four games, Boston won’t win the Finals.
If you’re wondering why Al Horford is the secret key to Boston winning the title it’s because teams give this guy wide-open looks at 3-pointers in every critical situation.
Dallas knows they can’t leave Tatum, Brown, and White wide open. And this year, Jrue Holiday had the best 3-point shooting year of his career, hitting 42.9% of his 3s.
I look for this to be a close series and Horford’s performance will determine who wins one of the early critical games.
FINALS PREDICTION
In 2022, the Phoenix Suns, fresh off an NBA Finals appearance, ran away with the regular season. They won 64 games in the Western Conference and looked like the odds-on favorite to win the title. Then Luka Krueger entered their title dreams and things got ugly.
Doncic in his own way is as dominant and unstoppable as Jokic or peak LeBron James. He is going to bend and stretch Boston’s defense until it breaks, yielding tons of dunks off lobs and wide open three-point shots.
What makes these Finals so unpredictable is 3-point shooting variance and the referees.
Boston has a history of getting ridiculous calls and non-calls to save them at the end of big games. On the other hand, Dallas fans are still crying about the 2006 Finals, when Dwyane Wade shot 46 free throws in the last two games of that series. The entire Dallas team shot 48.
We also know that the Celtics’ offense is completely dependent on 3-point shooting. Even if they can get to the rim, we have seen smaller teams like the Pacers dominate in points in the paint.
Dallas has too many good rim protectors and too much vertical spacing, so I expect them to win in this category.
The arguments for Boston:
- They have so many good defenders, they can work to slow down Doncic and Irving without sacrificing their own 3-point shooting.
- They have so many good 3-point shooters, Dallas will leave someone open. (Hence my Horford MVP argument.)
- Under Finals pressure, PJ Washington, Derek Jones, Jr., and Maxi Kleber won’t kill them on wide open 3-point shots.
The arguments for Dallas:
- Guarding Luka will exhaust their players to the point that they start missing 3-pointers. If any of them goes really cold, the Mavericks’ coach will make adjustments and Boston’s offense will slow down to a standstill. We will see a repeat of the two Js taking turns in iso, jacking up step back three pointers, and Boston will lose a lot of close games in crunch time.
- Kyrie Irving is playing his best basketball since 2016, the year he and LeBron upset the mighty 73-win Warriors. Irving has dedicated himself to playing defense and rebounding for what seems like the first time in his life.
- Dallas’ interior defenders will protect the paint and clean up the defensive boards. If Boston can’t score at the rim or on second-chance points, the Mavericks can win games purely with their defense.
There is no way to predict these Finals.
My heart wants to see Doncic pull the beating hearts out of the media-darling Celtics. I hate recency bias, media hype, and delusional fans.
But first instinct is to go with Boston in 7 because they have no weaknesses in their first six players. And there is no way the refs won’t win at least one game for the Celtics.
Boston in 7.
FOOTNOTES ON RECENCY BIAS:
First, the media fell all over itself, voting Shai Gilgeous-Alexander #2 in the MVP race, the dumbest award in basketball. Either the MVP is best player on the best team — usually the one who wins Finals MVP — or it’s the guy who raises his team the most. Like Stephen Curry in 2021.
But if it supposed to be a regular-season award, why not give it to the best player on the team with the best record? Boston’s Jaylen Brown. (too soon, Tatum fans? The other guy did win the Eastern Conference Finals MVP.)
I understand why Jokic won another MVP. He was consistently great and leading the defending NBA champions.
But I can’t explain why SGA, not Jayson Tatum, was the toast of the voters because he led Oklahoma City to the #1 seed in the West. After all, Tatum’s team finished seven games ahead of the Thunder to win the East.
When the Thunder lost in six games to the Mavericks, the media focused on the Anthony Edwards comparisons to Michael Jordan. Then Minnesota beat Denver in an improbable Game 7 comeback, and look who’s now the odd-on favorite to win the NBA title!
About a weak later, with the Timberwolves’ title hopes rotting in the midday sun, we have a third championship favorite, and it’s not the Dallas Mavericks. Beware of picking four times in a row against the Makericks.
