*(Yes, I’m two days late, but some of our best laid plans simply go up in smoke)

Lon Shapiro

Apr 23, 2018·8 min read

I know it’s late, and some of these predictions will look like they’re based on hind sight, but I do have some proof of my ideas in the conversation sections of games that I wrote about throughout the year.

Here’s a list of who will advance in the order by which they are eliminated, based on four major criteria:

1. Who has an offensive system that creates lots of easy shots?
2. Who has a competent modern coach? (Sorry Brandon)
3. Who has an unstoppable offensive force?
4. Who has a player that can slow down the opposition’s superstar?
5. How did they do against the Lakers this season?

[Don’t laugh. The reason I include the Lakers is because they try to play like the Warriors who are the dominant team that best represents the modern game. I’ve analyzed these teams in depth to see if their styles can be effective against Golden State or Houston, who are the heavy favorites to win the title.]

Western Conference

First Round Losers

Portland, San Antonio, Oklahoma City, Minnesota

Portland had a great regular season, but from a historic standpoint, they would have been an 8th seed in the years when the West was so tough 48 wins did not make the playoffs.

System: #30 in assists, #23 in points in the paint, #30 in fast break points, this team depended solely on the outside shooting brilliance of their guards. They were #7 in defensive efficiency, and #19 in pace, so they slowed the game down and just hoped to keep it close so Lilliard could do his magic at the end.

Coach: Terry Stotts is basically an old school coach. His greatest success came in Dallas’ championship season as an assistant, but they basically had a bunch of guys who got super hot shooting 3-pointers throughout the playoffs. It wasn’t like their big guns (except Nowitzki) were known for their ability to finish at the rim if the defense chased them off the 3-point line.

Unstoppable Force: Damian Lilliard. He’s not quite at the level of Lebron, Curry, Durant and Harden, but he’s an amazing offensive force from the outside.

Defensive Stopper: None

Lakers games: Portland went 3–0 against the Lakers, but every game was was in doubt until the last minute. Lilliard had to hit a game winner at the buzzer in the first game (113–110), they got an offensive rebound to take the lead with 21 seconds left, (95–92) and trailed by 11 in the 4th quarter of their third game when Lilliard had one of the most amazing 3-minute hot streaks of the season, scoring 15 straight points (108–103).

Here’s what I wrote about their match up with New Orleans after the second game:

Recency bias is really dangerous when it comes to sports. We want to believe that non-All-Stars like Rondo and Holiday can’t possibly be good players compared to the Portland backcourt. But if you dig deeper, you find reasons why the improbable has happened the last two games:

1. Holiday was the youngest All-Star selection in the history of the 76ers, when he made that team in 2013. He has been injured for a good part of the last three seasons, but has been fairly healthy this year. He is also a big strong player on both ends of the floor.
2. Rondo was the best player on the floor for the Boston Celtics from 2009–2013, (which includes their run to the 2010 NBA Finals) until he tore an ACL. He is a 4-time All-Star and 4-time NBA All-Defensive team member.
3. Anthony Davis is the best not-a-center in the NBA.

There’s a reason these two teams split their regular season series. Each team has some strengths but also some glaring weaknesses. Portland is a bottom 10 team in rebounding, the worst assist team in the league and they depend on iso plays by their guards.

San Antonio was just a shell of their old selves, playing without Kawhi Leonard most of the season.

System: #19 in assists, #19 in points in the paint, #22 in fast break points, this team depended solely on the outside shooting brilliance of their guards. They were #4 in defensive efficiency, and #30 in pace, so they slowed the game down and just hoped to keep it close, hoping to win with superior team execution at the end of games.

Coach: Greg Popovich is the best coach in the NBA, and he has played every style there is, constantly adapting his team. Their 2013 and 2014 teams completely embraced the modern offensive system used by Golden State and Houston. Unfortunately, their remaining core (Parker, Ginobli, Gasol) has aged beyond recognition, and their best all-around player (besides Aldridge) is nicknamed “Slo-Mo.”

Unstoppable Force: None

Defensive Stopper: None, with Leonard being injured

Laker games: San Antonio was exposed badly by the young, energetic Lakers, going 0–3. Without Kawhi Leonard they just weren’t capable of playing at a fast pace and wore down in the 4th quarter of every game. In the first game, the Lakers jumped out to a 17-point lead, then put the game away with a late run in the 4th quarter. In the second game, the Spurs blew a 12-point 4th quarter lead with 5:43 remaining, in spite of the Lakers missing Ingram and Hart. In the third game, the Lakers were missing Ingram, Ball and Thomas, while San Antonio was fighting for their playoff lives. Kuzma destroyed them, and the Spurs lost by 10 in overtime.

San Antonio was just a shell of their old selves, playing without Kawhi Leonard most of the season.

System: #19 in assists, #19 in points in the paint, #22 in fast break points, this team depended solely on the outside shooting brilliance of their guards. They were #4 in defensive efficiency, and #30 in pace, so they slowed the game down and just hoped to keep it close, hoping to win with superior team execution at the end of games.

Coach: Greg Popovich is the best coach in the NBA, and he has played every style there is, constantly adapting his team. Their 2013 and 2014 teams completely embraced the modern offensive system used by Golden State and Houston. Unfortunately, their remaining core (Parker, Ginobli, Gasol) has aged beyond recognition, and their best all-around player (besides Aldridge) is nicknamed “Slo-Mo.”

Unstoppable Force: None

Defensive Stopper: None, with Leonard being injured

Laker games: San Antonio was exposed badly by the young, energetic Lakers, going 0–3. Without Kawhi Leonard they just weren’t capable of playing at a fast pace and wore down in the 4th quarter of every game. In the first game, the Lakers jumped out to a 17-point lead, then put the game away with a late run in the 4th quarter. In the second game, the Spurs blew a 12-point 4th quarter lead with 5:43 remaining, in spite of the Lakers missing Ingram and Hart. In the third game, the Lakers were missing Ingram, Ball and Thomas, while San Antonio was fighting for their playoff lives. Kuzma destroyed them, and the Spurs lost by 10 in overtime.

Oklahoma City is like a ghost floating around the locker rooms around the NBA, cursed by the way their owner stole the team from Seattle. All you hear are whispers like “Westbrook averaged a triple double” and “Why, Kevin, why?,” and “We had Westbrook, Durant and Harden along with the defensive player of the year in Serge Ibaka and didn’t have a dynasty.”

System: #29 in assists, #17 in points in the paint, #4 in fast break points, this team depended solely on Westbrook to create their offense, and featured two ball stoppers. They were #9 in defensive efficiency, and #7 in pace. In the playoffs, they have to play a lot more half court offense, which is a recipe for disaster.

Coach: Billy Donovan’s peak came in 2007–2008 when he won back to back NCAA championships with Florida, featuring a team with three of the top 9 players selected in the first round of the NBA Draft. His system is letting iso players take bad shots all game, hoping that Westbrook’s amazing energy and competitive spirit will somehow bail them out.

Unstoppable Force: Russell Westbrook is an amazing force of nature, but his poor 3-point shooting and bad shot selection put him in the second tier behind the true forces in the game.

Defensive Stopper: Paul George.

Lakers games: OKC split their season series with the Lakers. OKC easily won their first two games, but as the young Lakers matured, they figured out how to play against the Thunder and won the last two games.

Minnesota was really unfortunate not to be the #3 seed in the West and win a first round playoff series. Losing Jimmy Butler for an extended period of time put too much pressure on the rest of the team to defend and figure out who should be taking the big shots (hint: his name is Towns).

System: #17 in assists, #4 in points in the paint, #25 in fast break points, this team also featured two ball stoppers, as Butler and Wiggins try to do too much iso, instead of giving it to Towns. Butler, Towns and Gibson are all good working in the post, but these points near the basket are all based on grinding instead of getting easy fast break points. They were #25 in defensive efficiency, and #9 in pace. In other words, they like to run up and down the floor AFTER their opponents have scored.

Coach: Tom Thibodeau is a dinosaur whose claim to fame was designing the defense for the 2008 NBA champion Celtics in a league still playing old school basketball. He is also famous for running his players into the ground so they aren’t fresh enough to play at their best in the playoffs.

Unstoppable Force: Nobody. It would be KAT, but the team does the work for their opponents by keeping the ball out of his hands.

Defensive Stopper: Jimmy Butler. Without Butler, Minnesota would have extended their playoff drought to 15 years.

Lakers games: Minnesota went 4–0 against the Lakers, but three of them were just decided by injuries and scheduling. In game 1, the Lakers were missing Ball and Ingram. In game 2, the Lakers flew to Minnesota to play the second game of a back to back after losing a double overtime game in Houston on New Year’s eve. In game 4, the Lakers were without Ball, Ingram and Thomas. Only game 3 was interesting, as the Lakers led for most of the game, building an early 15-point lead, and then blowing a 7-point lead to start the 4th quarter. Jimmy Butler just took over the game in the last 6:40, scoring 9 straight points while stifling Brandon Ingram to build a 3-point lead.

Minnesota could be a really good team if they could just get a modern coach. Maybe they could trade Wiggins for one. Hell, if the Clippers could give up a 1st round pick for Doc Rivers… on second thought, they’ll have to give up something much better than Wiggins to get a good young coach. Their president of basketball operations might not be too keen on doing that kind of a deal, but the owner might have something to say about it.

Next up: the Eastern Conference.

I’ll try to catch up, so I can get ahead of the second round match ups.